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Serious question about 2 kills and 2 escapes

I'm sorry to bring up something way too talked about but something has been bothering me and if I am mistaken please correct me. As I understand devs are shooting for 2 kills 2 escapes that's the definition of a balanced match for dbd. Again if this is wrong please tell me but that's my understanding. In that case who wins? it's kind of weird calling it a killer win because survivors escaped when their goal is to kill them all or at least 3 of them. And does that mean only half the survivors lost? that's kind of weird since survivors escaped. So does everybody lose? It's been really puzzling me honestly



  • kombativokombativo Member Posts: 183

    always I get two surv escaped and other two ded I always will think that its a tie

  • squbaxsqubax Member Posts: 449

    If you let 2 survivors escape as killer you got dunked on, not only did you fail to stop them repairing all gens but you also let two of them out the exit gates, you failed as a killer, thats a w for survivors.

  • dugmandugman Member Posts: 7,846

    The game is designed around 1-3 survivors escaping being the most common outcome. The gens are supposed to be completed most games when both sides play equally well. This notion that there's supposed to be a 50/50 chance of the gens being done is mistaken.

  • brokedownpalacebrokedownpalace Member Posts: 7,990

    They mean the average. They don't want every game to be 2 kills and 2 escapes.

  • MilMansonMilManson Member Posts: 939

    It's a win for survivors if even 1 survivor escapes.

  • alpaca_boyyyalpaca_boyyy Member Posts: 142

    I take it as a draw. And if I get a 3K and last gets hatched I still consider it a win.

  • AnchorTeaAnchorTea Member Posts: 732

    Winning/losing isnt very black and white in DBD. No kills is still a major loss even if you get 8 hooks. One kill is still a loss but not a total failure. Two kills is more average, a bit of a draw. Not really a win or loss. Three kills is leaning on a win, but not a grand victory. Four kills is you completely outplaying the survivors and having the glory all for you.

  • DbD_EnjoyerDbD_Enjoyer Member Posts: 457

    Its very simple actually:

    Hatch = Kill.

    1 Escape = Lose.

    4 Kills = Win.

    Someone escaped using the gates or a key after you closed the hatch = Draw.

    Survivors win if any of them mannages to leave by the gate after completing 5 gens, a Draw means both sides lose and u always lose if u don't get 4 kills, but hatch counts as a kill too.

  • AraphexAraphex Member Posts: 507

    The game isn't based around 1-3 survivors escaping, but it should. It's now some esport version of a horror game that is 1v1v1v1v1 instead of being 1v4. The game is just horribly unbalanced anymore.

  • NazzzakNazzzak Member Posts: 455

    It's not that they expect every match to end that way, it's just an average they use when observing whether a killer needs to be buffed or nerfed. If stats show one particular killer averages 3k 1e overall then they will look at ways to nerf them a bit. If another killer averages 1k 3e overall then that killer needs a buff. That's just a very basic summary though.

  • dugmandugman Member Posts: 7,846

    The balance goal is an average of about 2 kills and the most common results being 1-3 kills. They want 0 kills and 4 kills to be the outliers.

    I do agree though that the game should have been designed as the survivors actually winning or losing as a team with a clear win/loss objective for the group. Designing it to be semi-cooperative is a flaw, that sort of game design rarely works well. Unfortunately it is what it is, there’s no changing that at this point.

  • squbaxsqubax Member Posts: 449

    I never said its a 50/50 chance, the role who plays better determines the outcome, if the survivors manage to not only repair all gens but to escape no matter how many survs, you as a killer are objectively a failure.

  • woodenEnthusiasmwoodenEnthusiasm Member Posts: 47

    I'm seeing a lot of the game is 1v1v1v1v1 vs 1v4 talk. So lets talk about some sbmm maths. if the game is 1v1v1v1v1 that assumes a few thing. 1. the game is not a team based game its a free for all. 2. you kind of want your "teammates" to die as you will gain more mmr or at least lose less because you will be ranked higher in this imaginary free for all scoreboard. and 3. this also implies the killer always wins with at least 1 kill. A killer killing a survivor eliminates them from the 1v1v1v1v1 this means the killer won the survivor lost. Mathematically this isn't good because it means all killers will slowly go up in mmr and the system will no longer be accurate.

    Now in a 1v4 scenario there's the opposite problem the game is now 2 teams and not a free for all. if 2 live and 2 die the killer only half won? This could be interpreted as a win but that would also mean half the other team won and now you count that as a win and now everyone is winning and thats going to be some weird math so instead we must assume the killer has lost. Now the killer is always losing unless they 4k but the game isn't being balanced for 4ks so now killers are always losing which means slowly mmr will drop and be inaccurate.

    so now we're back to my original question. if the average for balance is 2 kills and 2 escapes who is winning? From a player perspective its fine and dandy to say define your own win but from an sbmm perspective no one is winning in either of these scenarios as the system will eventually have no meaning and hey suddenly we don't have sbmm anymore.

  • SMitchell8SMitchell8 Member Posts: 2,395

    I never get 2 and 2

    Its always 4k, 1k or 0k when I play killer. Litterally goes 0/1 , 0/1 , 4 4 , 0/1 , 0/1 , 4 4 😅

  • SMitchell8SMitchell8 Member Posts: 2,395

    Class wins as

    All escape = Loss

    3 escapes = Loss

    2 escapes = Draw

    1 escape = Win

    0 escapes = Total win

  • dugmandugman Member Posts: 7,846

    You literally are saying above that “the side that plays better determines if the exits open” but that immediately implies you think if both sides play equally well it should be a 50/50 chance the gates open. Which conflicts with the design goal that most games be in the 1-3 kill range.

  • squbaxsqubax Member Posts: 449

    On the contrary, I think its completely imposible both sides play equally well, one will undoubtely best the other, so yes I do believe the 50/50 is imposible because both sides being equally skilled is imposible.

  • Mr_KMr_K Member Posts: 7,704
  • Percival_nxsPercival_nxs Member Posts: 135

    Tunnel the first person and then kill another one with noed at the end, boom! Balanced.

  • dugmandugman Member Posts: 7,846
    edited March 24

    There’s no literally purely objective way to tell precisely that one side play x% better than the other obviously, but generally speaking I think it’s reasonable to talk in broad terms that if all the players in a match have roughly the same experience and practice in the game and appear to not be making disproportionate numbers of unforced errors then they are likely playing roughly equally well. And statistically the balance goals are set so that hopefully if all the players are on the same skill level then the results will tend to be 1-3 kills most games versus being wild swings between 0 kills and 4 kills.

    So really there’s two main metrics they’re looking at: average kills per match and the variance or swinginess of kills per match. They want the average to be about 2, since that is roughly where most people would expect close games to average, and they also don’t want the variance to be too high in that 0 and 4 kills are the exceptions and most games are in the 1-3 ballpark.

  • KurriKurri Member Posts: 1,599

    You pretty much answered it yourself. 2 Kills is a draw for Killer. 2 Escapes is a draw for the team of survivors. Escape or die, doesn't actually matter on the Survivor side. Even the emblem system supports you dying. You can still double pip being sacrificed as survivor if you are in the game long enough and other factors.

  • squbaxsqubax Member Posts: 449

    I agree with that and its pretty obvious thats their balancing goal, so we can agree on that, however a 2k is still a lose for killer as I said before if you let 2 people escape you played badly.

  • dugmandugman Member Posts: 7,846
    edited March 24

    We’ll have to agree to disagree. I think the way the game is designed it’s perfectly possible to play well as killer but if the survivors play just as well as you then the result is 1-3 kills. That doesn’t mean that you as killer “played badly”, it just means the survivors didn’t play badly.

    Another way to say it might be that if you play well as killer you can reduce the chances you get no kills or only 1 kill but it’s difficult to force the survivors to all die if they’re also playing really well too.

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